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  • Rail Recession: U.S. Carloads Continue Collapse As Manufacturing Slows

    Nov 21, 2019 | 03:25 am

    Rail Recession: U.S. Carloads Continue Collapse As Manufacturing Slows Rail Recession: U.S. Carloads Continue Collapse As Manufacturing SlowsNowhere is the slowdown in the U.S. economy more obvious than in places like Class 8 Heavy Duty Truck orders and rail traffic. We already wrote about how Class 8 orders continued to fall in October and new data the American Association of Railroads (AAR) now shows that last week's rail traffic and intermodal container usage both plunged.The AAR reported total carloads for the week ended Nov. 9 came in at 248,905, down 5.1% compared with the same week in 2018. U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 266,364 containers and trailers, down 6.7% compared to 2018, according to Railway Age. One of the 10 carload segments that posted an increase YOY was grain, which was barely up 342 carloads to 21,855. Coal was down 9,577 carloads, to 75,180; miscellaneous carloads were down 843 carloads, to 10,944; and petroleum and petroleum products were down 741 carloads, to 12,617.So far in 2019, railroads have reported total volume of 11,337,628 carloads, which is down 4.3% from the year prior. The year's 11,988,234 intermodal units are down 4.6% for the year and total combined traffic was down 4.4% to 23,325,862 carloads. The numbers for North America in total were also lower. North[…]

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  • A Huge Red Flag? India Shutters Power Plants Citing Lack Of Demand

    Nov 21, 2019 | 03:05 am

    A Huge Red Flag? India Shutters Power Plants Citing Lack Of Demand A Huge Red Flag? India Shutters Power Plants Citing Lack Of DemandAuthored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,Half of India’s power generation capacity using coal and nuclear power is being shut down because of lackluster demand, the Indian Express reports, adding that some of the shutdowns have been temporary, lasting just a few days, but other power plants have been closed for months.Some 65.13 GW in generation capacity has been shut down at one point or another, with the earlier shutdown made in July. There seems to be simply not enough demand for electricity, which is worrying as a lot of this demand comes from the industrial and commercial sectors.This is a marked departure from 2012, when the worst blackout in years hit 20 of India’s 28 states, plunging 700 million people into darkness. The blackout was caused by a surge in demand that the local utilities found themselves unable to meet.Now, demand is on the decline for India’s coal-powered generation plants as renewables encroach on their territory: coal-fired plants currently account for 63 percent of the country’s energy mix, down from 73 percent three years ago. The country has one of the most ambitious renewables programs in the world, which should result in India deriving 55 percent of its[…]

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  • Goldman Banker On Trial Had $24,000 Hidden In His Sunglasses Case

    Nov 21, 2019 | 02:45 am

    Goldman Banker On Trial Had $24,000 Hidden In His Sunglasses Case Goldman Banker On Trial Had $24,000 Hidden In His Sunglasses CaseEvery good criminal has their secret stash of cash that they are either hiding from the government or using for illicit "working capital" purposes. Usually, this cash is held in safes, briefcases or good old fashioned sacks with dollar signs on them.Which is why it has piqued the interest of many that a Goldman Sachs banker on trial for insider trading somehow was able to stuff his secret stash of $24,000 into a peculiar place: his sunglasses case. Prosecutors pointed out on Tuesday that the stash was indicative that the banker, Bryan Cohen, could be a flight risk before his trial, according to Bloomberg. The $24,000 was hidden in a case, which was hidden in a dresser drawer in his closet, prosecutors said. Cohen, who is a French citizen, also has an overseas bank account with more than $533,000 in it and owns four properties in France that are worth over $500,000. Bail was set by U.S. District Judge William Pauley at $750,000 and Cohen has since been ordered to remain under house arrest with a GPS bracelet until his trial. Cohen is seeking to be removed from house arrest. Cohen's lawyer - and former Martin[…]

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  • Google Follows Twitter, Will Restrict Political Ad Targeting, Ban Misleading Info

    Nov 21, 2019 | 02:25 am

    Google Follows Twitter, Will Restrict Political Ad Targeting, Ban Misleading InfoThree weeks after Twitter announced it would ban political advertising, with mixed results so far...Promoted (political) cc: @jack pic.twitter.com/1VMRzJ7nfI— LST (@LongShortTrader) November 20, 2019... Google said late on Wednesday it too will limit political advertising as it plans to stop allowing highly targeted political ads on its platform, a move that comes in a time when tech giants are already drawing scrutiny for their rules on political advertising. The company will also restrict misinformation and ban doctored media known as deepfakes in ads following criticism that Google and rival Facebook ran ads from U.S. President Donald Trump that were intentionally misleading.Google will first roll out the ban next week in the UK, ahead of the Dec. 12 general election. Then, by the end of 2019, the ban will take effect across the European Union by the end of the year and in the rest of the world on Jan. 6, the company said in a blog post.The Google policy changes follow calls for regulation of political advertising online, including from Federal Election Commission Chairwoman Ellen Weintraub.Under the new policy, political ads will only target a users’ age, gender and location at the[…]

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  • Greta Thunberg Meltdown Imminent? China To Unleash Tsunami Of Mega-Polluting Coal-Fired Power Plants

    Nov 21, 2019 | 02:05 am

    Greta Thunberg Meltdown Imminent? China To Unleash Tsunami Of Mega-Polluting Coal-Fired Power Plants Greta Thunberg Meltdown Imminent? China To Unleash Tsunami Of Mega-Polluting Coal-Fired Power PlantsIn recent months, emotional eco-activist Greta Thunberg who has become synonymous with the global anti-global warming climate change movement has made consistent appeals at the developed world, demanding an end to its evil, polluting ways. She even went so far as to sue some of the bigger carbon polluters in the world — Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, and Turkey — for violating her rights as a child by failing to adequately reduce emissions.And yet one nation has consistently escaped her steely gaze: China.Which is unfortunate, because whereas many of the nations that have provoked Greta's ire in the past have made concerted efforts to reduce their emissions, it is the world's biggest polluter, China, that has curiously evaded her anger.Hopefully that is about to change because as the FT reports, China is set to add an army of new coal-fired power plants equivalent to the EU’s entire capacity, as the world’s biggest energy consumer ignores global pressure to rein in carbon emissions in its bid to boost a slowing economy.Across China, a whopping 148GW of heavily-polluting, coal-fired plants are either being built or are about to begin construction,[…]

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  • Get Woke Go Broke - Charlie's Angels Fall To Earth

    Nov 21, 2019 | 01:45 am

    Get Woke Go Broke - Charlie's Angels Fall To Earth Get Woke Go Broke - Charlie's Angels Fall To EarthAuthored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,Normally I wouldn’t give a cynical piece of schlock like the latest Hollywood reboot like Charlie’s Angels a second thought. In fact, I hadn’t given it any thought whatsoever until I saw it flop completely at the box office to my complete lack of surprise.But it was the inane and insipid comments from the “film’s” writer and director, Elizabeth Banks, that really caught my attention.Michael McCaffrey writing for RT.com pulled them all together in one really good article which goes over the string of ‘Woke Flops’ at the box office of the past few years. But this one is the choice one, highlighting how complete Ms. Banks’ solipsism is.“Look, people have to buy tickets to this movie, too. This movie has to make money. If this movie doesn’t make money it reinforces a stereotype in Hollywood that men don’t go see women do action movies.”It didn’t.And it isn’t because men don’t go see women in action movies. Lest we forget that the first Charlie’s Angels foray on film (not a uniquely terrible experience, unlike its sequel) was a surprise hit in 2000 making more than $264 million[…]

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  • Boeing's 737 Officially Loses Title Of World's Most Popular Jet To Airbus A320

    Nov 21, 2019 | 01:25 am

    Boeing's 737 Officially Loses Title Of World's Most Popular Jet To Airbus A320 Boeing's 737 Officially Loses Title Of World's Most Popular Jet To Airbus A320The competition with Airbus that led to Boeing cutting corners on the 737 Max to begin has now cost the jet its title as the world's most popular plane.The Airbus A320 has now officially seized the title of the world's best selling narrow-body airliner, overtaking Boeing's 737 and 737 Max models, according to RT. Boeing's 737 was once the best selling commercial aircraft of all time, but that domination is now slipping away. The Airbus A320 had attracted a total of 15,193 orders while the similar class 737 has 15,136 orders on its books as of October. Boeing is still ahead when it comes to deliveries, but that gap is closing quickly also. In October, Airbus shipped 77 aircraft to customers, 59 of which were A320s, while Boeing had only delivered 20 planes. Airbus is slowly fulfilling the mission put forth for the A320 project when it was developed nearly 3 decades ago: challenge the 737 in the narrow-body jet market and become the aircraft of choice for many airlines in Europe and beyond. Airbus now says that one A320 family jet takes off or lands somewhere in the world every[…]

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  • Governor Of Illinois, Home Of Nation's Worst Fiscal Crisis, Slams Door On Pension Reform

    Nov 21, 2019 | 01:05 am

    Governor Of Illinois, Home Of Nation's Worst Fiscal Crisis, Slams Door On Pension Reform Governor Of Illinois, Home Of Nation's Worst Fiscal Crisis, Slams Door On Pension ReformSubmitted by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of WirePointsThe argument that “nothing is going to happen in Illinois until things blow up” got a major boost this week when the governor of the nation’s most fiscally upside down state said no to pension reform. Gov. J.B. Pritzker once again rejected calls to put a pension amendment on the ballot in 2020. Illinois’ constitution currently prohibits any reforms that “diminish or impair” pensions. Never mind that Illinois has been in a credit rating free fall for more than a decade and is now just one notch from a junk rating. Or that Illinois is the nation’s extreme outlier when it comes to public sector retirement debts. Or that Chicago, Illinois’ economic heart, is in even worse shape. A rejection of pension reform by Pritzker means Illinois will continue its slide toward insolvency.Illinois’ retirement debts are already one-third of the state’s annual economy – the worst in the nation.Ditto retirement costs as a percentage of budget. No state consumes more of its budget for pensions like Illinois does. At 26 percent of budget, Illinois’ pension burden dwarfs those of its neighboring[…]

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  • "Investors Are Now Back Drinking Vast Amounts Of Kool-Aid": David Rosenberg

    Nov 21, 2019 | 00:45 am

    "Investors Are Now Back Drinking Vast Amounts Of Kool-Aid": David Rosenberg "Investors Are Now Back Drinking Vast Amounts Of Kool-Aid": David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., said in a recent note that the writing is on the wall for the stock market rally, as the next move could be lower, reported The Globe and Mail. "Enjoy it while it lasts, but think of how artificial it all really is and how to prepare yourself, at these lofty price levels, for the reversal that is as inevitable as night following day and vice versa," Rosenberg said."The stock market surely remains on wheels and is being driven by concentrated gains in certain large-cap names and a major shift in economic sentiment, with views that a 'phase one' trade agreement is coming our way soon," he said. President Trump has spent the last several months pumping an illusionary trade deal, something we outlined last week, all in the effort to boost the stock market while the Federal Reserve launched 'Not QE.' So when Rosenberg calls the rally in stocks "artificial," he means that. And in the last 48 hours, trade optimism has turned to trade pessimism, and it's becoming increasingly clear that China is preparing for the worst-case scenario of a prolonged trade war.  On[…]

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  • China (And The World Economy) At The End Of The Road

    Nov 21, 2019 | 00:25 am

    China (And The World Economy) At The End Of The Road China (And The World Economy) At The End Of The RoadAuthored by Tuomas Malinen via GnSEconomics.com,We have been monitoring China closely since March 2017. We were one of the first to show that China had driven the global business cycle since 2009 and that the remarkable recovery of the world economy from the 2015 slump was mostly China’s doing.Now that the world economy is, again, heading down, many are wondering, what will China do? The unfortunate answer is that it can most likely do very little. Her ability to stimulate the economy by increasing debt is almost completely gone. This means that the world economy is heading into a recession.The limits of stimulusChina has been very aggressive in its efforts to curtail any deeper contraction in its economy. This has produced some remarkable trends, like the relationship between China’s GDP and total debt shown in Figure 1.Figure 1. Nominal gross domestic product and the total private sector and government debt in China. Source: GnS Economics, Mbaye, Moreno-Badina and Chae (2018), World BankIt has been clear for quite some time that China’s economy is on an unsustainable path. We warned about this in September 2017, and summarized our findings bluntly:Because of the massive[…]

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  • "It's Kind Of Despicable": Chicago Is Rigging Red Light Cameras To Rack Up Millions In Fines

    Nov 21, 2019 | 00:05 am

    "It's Kind Of Despicable": Chicago Is Rigging Red Light Cameras To Rack Up Millions In Fines "It's Kind Of Despicable": Chicago Is Rigging Red Light Cameras To Rack Up Millions In FinesIt appears as though someone figured out that red light cameras could rack up tons more in fines if the number of times a light changes to red increases. This has led to nefariously shorter green lights in certain areas of Chicago. Intersections where drivers are issued hundreds of thousands of dollars in tickets have been unfairly racked up, according to ABC's investigative reporting team.  The team timed traffic lights at intersections where cameras were present and found that drivers had less time to legally get through intersections in directions where cameras where watching.In once case, yellow and green lights were only 20 seconds - combined.The city - which has been in a perpetual state of financial peril thanks to horrifying mismanagement of its pension liabilities - took in $35 million from the city's 300 red light cameras so far in 2019. Kevin O'Malley, managing deputy commissioner of the Chicago Department of Transportation, said: "We believe it improves traffic safety which in the end saves injuries and saves lives."But on a tip from a group opposing the cameras, the ABC team decided to conduct their own investigation. Mark Wallace of Citizens to Abolish[…]

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  • Why Are We So Scared?

    Nov 20, 2019 | 23:45 pm

    Why Are We So Scared? Why Are We So Scared?Authored by Seth Levine via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,I always find this time of year to be self-reflective. Year-end provides a natural point for critiquing past performance and fitting it into a broader investing context. These holidays in particular have a way of foisting this perspective upon me, and with deep meaning. As a parent of two young kids, my holidays now kick off with Halloween. Perhaps stuck in this spirit, I find myself wondering: Why are we so scared?I can’t seem to shake this sense that we live in a culture that’s scared. I see a number of signs across the economic, political, and investment landscapes that seem support this observation. To be sure, this is not universally true on an individual level. However, as a culture we seem to have lost our mojo, our swagger, and the confidence that fuels significant economic advancements.Why ScaredScared is psychological state. It connotes being afraid or frightened. Scared feelings typically arise when one feels helpless in a situation or believes he/she is unable to improve it via action. Thus, it’s closely associated with victimhood. Scared is not a feeling that accompanies independence, confidence, and capability.By all accounts this is the best time in[…]

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  • Futures Slide After House Joins Senate In Landslide Vote Backing Hong Kong Protesters; Trump Expected To Sign Bill

    Nov 20, 2019 | 23:28 pm

    Futures Slide After House Joins Senate In Landslide Vote Backing Hong Kong Protesters; Trump Expected To Sign Bill Futures Slide After House Joins Senate In Landslide Vote Backing Hong Kong Protesters; Trump Expected To Sign BillUpdate: the trade deal with China, not that it ever existed, is now dead and buried if Bloomberg's update that Trump is expected to sign the Hong Kong bill, is accurate.According to the BBG report, Trump is expected to sign legislation passed by Congress supporting Hong Kong protesters, ""setting up a confrontation with China that could imperil a long-awaited trade deal between the world’s two largest economies."As discussed earlier (see below), Trump's position is now acutely precarious because Congress would easily be able to override any veto. If Trump signs the bill, he could torpedo the trade talks, while refusing to sign it would give his political opponents a chance to attack him for being weak on China, while at the same time facing an ongoing impeachment process.In response, futures slide below 3,100, as not even the massive "gamma gravity" at 3,100 can hold the market any more.And now we go straight to LeBron James for his hot take on recent developments.* * *One day after the Senate unanimously passed a Bill backing Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters, and spawning a wave of complaints and threats[…]

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  • Prince Andrew To Officially Disappear From Public Life After Interview Disaster

    Nov 20, 2019 | 23:11 pm

    Prince Andrew To Officially Disappear From Public Life After Interview Disaster Prince Andrew To Officially Disappear From Public Life After Interview DisasterPedo-pal Prince Andrew says he's stepping away from public duties for the "forseeable future" after giving an interview to the BBC widely panned as a "catastrophic mistake" as he fumbled through questions about his friendship with dead pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.In a Wednesday statement, Andrew says that he has asked the Queen for permission to step back from public duties, and that he regrets his "ill-judged association with Jeffrey Epstein."BREAKING: Prince Andrew says he has asked the Queen to step back from public duties "for the foreseeable future, and she has given her permission.""I continue to unequivocally regret my ill-judged association with Jeffrey Epstein." pic.twitter.com/IsWu2QAFdu— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 20, 2019Additionally, corporate sponsors have quickly abandoned the prince.Meanwhile, now that Prince Andrew is "taking a step back from public duties for the foreseeable future" now that his "former association" with Epstein has become a "major disruption" to his family's work, it's becoming clear that the UK business community made clear it is no longer comfortable with the Duke of York.With the entirety of the Royal Family's resources at his disposal, it's surprising that Prince Andrew wasn't able to come up with[…]

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  • DNA Test Reveals Hunter Biden Fathered Arkansas Child

    Nov 20, 2019 | 23:05 pm

    DNA Test Reveals Hunter Biden Fathered Arkansas Child DNA Test Reveals Hunter Biden Fathered Arkansas ChildHunter Biden is many things; international businessman, alleged connoisseur of crack cocaine, and now - father to a child in Arkansas according to a recent DNA test revealed in a Wednesday court filing by the mother, Lunden Alexis Roberts. According to the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the test established Biden's parentage "with scientific certainty," and Biden "is not expected to challenge the results" or the testing process, according to the filing.The baby’s “paternal grandfather, Joe Biden, is seeking the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States of America,” the mother notes. “He is considered by some to be the person most likely to win his party’s nomination and challenge President Trump on the ballot in 2020.”Hunter Biden, who initially denied having sexual relations with Roberts, eventually agreed to take a DNA test, according to documents filed by Roberts’ attorney, Clint Lancaster. -Arkansas Democrat Gazette Hopefully Hunter saved some of that Burisma money.Tyler DurdenWed, 11/20/2019 - 17:05TagsPolitics

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  • Is This What's Behind Pete Buttigieg's Tremendous Ascent In The Polls

    Nov 20, 2019 | 22:45 pm

    Is This What's Behind Pete Buttigieg's Tremendous Ascent In The Polls Is This What's Behind Pete Buttigieg's Tremendous Ascent In The PollsIt has been a rough two months for Elizabeth Warren, whose formerly insurmountable lead according to PredictIt has all but melted away, leaving her tied with Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination.But as Warren's star was setting, that of Pete Buttigieg has rising, with his nomination odds staging an impressive run in the past month, leading to what is effectively a three way tie between Warren, Biden and Buttigieg.One possible reason for the Indiana mayor's run was laid out by Cowen analyst Jaret Seidberg, who said that the democratic presidential candidate is being well-received by markets due to his pragmatic approach to governing and his "appreciation for the benefits of capitalism." As a reminder, Buttigieg is due to take the debate stage on Wednesday night as the emerging front-runner in Iowa.Pete Buttigieg. Photo credit BloombergIn a field that involves staunch leftists such as Warren and Sanders, the Indiana mayor is probably one of the better Democratic candidates for financial and housing stocks, Seiberg wrote adding that Buttigieg’s "experience is solving problems rather than partisan brawling,” while he hasn’t endorsed “some of the more radical policy plans that other Democrats[…]

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  • Dr.Doom: Why Financial Markets' New Exuberance Is Irrational

    Nov 20, 2019 | 22:25 pm

    Dr.Doom: Why Financial Markets' New Exuberance Is Irrational Dr.Doom: Why Financial Markets' New Exuberance Is IrrationalAuthored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,Owing to a recent easing of both Sino-American tensions and monetary policies, many investors seem to be betting on another era of expansion for the global economy. But they would do well to remember that the fundamental risks to growth remain, and are actually getting worse.This past May and August, escalations in the trade and technology conflict between the United States and China rattled stock markets and pushed bond yields to historic lows. But that was then: since then, financial markets have once again become giddy. US and other equities are trending toward new highs, and there is even talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values. The financial-market buzz has seized on the possibility of a “reflation trade,” in the hope that the recent global slowdown will be followed in 2020 by accelerating growth and firmer inflation (which helps profits and risky assets).The sudden shift from risk-off to risk-on reflects four positive developments. First, the US and China are likely to reach a “phase-one” deal that would at least temporarily halt any further escalation of their trade and technology war.Second, despite the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s election[…]

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  • Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble As China Trade Deal Hope Fades

    Nov 20, 2019 | 22:00 pm

    Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble As China Trade Deal Hope Fades Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble As China Trade Deal Hope FadesThe so-called "resilience" of US equities overnight as they shrugged off the Washington Democracy Bill vote and the China retaliation threat is more a signal of ignorance (or total complacency) as every negative trade headline was met with a sudden wall of bids to try and get back to even...As US sources told Reuters that the deal may be delayed, the market began to drop the odds of a trade deal (albeit modestly)Source: BloombergThis was just a fleshwound though for the algos who know only buying matters now...Chinese stocks faded overnight (as they should rationally)...Source: BloombergEuropean stocks started ugly but were bid all day...Source: BloombergUS equities were all lower on the day (Trannies worst) but note the two BTFD efforts...The Dow is down two days in a row, and less than 1%, but that is still the biggest such drop in 6 weeks!!Source: BloombergThe S&P hasn't had a 1% days in 28 days (it went 36 days in June/July)...Source: BloombergThe VIX term structure continues to steepen dramatically...Source: BloombergMomo has erased almost all the month's losses (as bond yields have tumbled)...Source: BloombergTreasury yields were all lower once again today with the[…]

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  • Uber To Record Audio During Rides Amid Spate Of Sexual Assaults

    Nov 20, 2019 | 21:50 pm

    Uber To Record Audio During Rides Amid Spate Of Sexual Assaults Uber To Record Audio During Rides Amid Spate Of Sexual AssaultsUber is planning recording audio from rides in the United States as part of a new security initiative, amid rising safety concerns over drivers who have sexually assaulted passengers, according to the Washington Post.The new feature, which will be piloted in Mexico and Brazil next month, will let users opt-in to active an audio recording on any trip or all trips, according to internal communications leaked to the Post. Where available, passengers would be given a blanket warning that trips may be recorded, and that the feature will be active in their market. Neither riders or drivers will be able to listen to the audio.The on-trip audio recording is the latest safety-oriented change the app is making amid a push to reduce violence, unwanted advances and inappropriate behavior in its rides. Uber has added features such as in-app 911, along with automatic safety check-ins when trips veer off course as part of its Safety Toolkit.Uber said that in the upcoming pilot, drivers can set the feature to automatically record all trips. For riders to record, they have to activate the feature through the Safety Toolkit, which becomes available before they[…]

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  • US Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again

    Nov 20, 2019 | 21:35 pm

    US Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again US Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same AgainAuthored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,Our relationship with China just went from bad to worse, and most Americans don’t even realize that we just witnessed one of the most critical foreign policy decisions of this century. The U.S. Senate just unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the Chinese are absolutely seething with anger. Violent protests have been rocking Hong Kong for months, and the Chinese have repeatedly accused the United States of being behind the protests. Whether that is true or not, the U.S. Senate has openly sided with the protesters by passing this bill, and there is no turning back now.The protesters in Hong Kong have been waving American flags, singing our national anthem and they have made it exceedingly clear that they want independence from China. And all of us should certainly be able to understand why they would want that, because China is a deeply tyrannical regime. But to the Chinese government, this move by the U.S. Senate is essentially an assault on China itself. They are going to argue that the U.S. is inciting a revolution[…]

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  • Oil's Most Legendary Trader And Permabull Turns Bearish

    Nov 20, 2019 | 21:20 pm

    Oil's Most Legendary Trader And Permabull Turns Bearish Oil's Most Legendary Trader And Permabull Turns BearishFor virtually all of his career, legendary oil trader Andy Hall was a permabull when it comes to the price of oil.Andy Hall Photo: Bloomberg While that served him well for much of the past three decades as oil prices rose alongside China's ascent and relentless demand for crude, resulting in a personal fortune and making Hall one of the richest and most successful commodity traders in the world, it also was the reason for his demise, when after several years of declining oil prices following the OPEC near collapse on Thanksgiving Day 2014, Hall - who was unwilling to change his bullish outlook - was forced to shutter his Astenbeck hedge fund for good in 2017, "a capitulation of one of the best-known figures in the commodities world" according to Bloomberg.Since then Hall has kept a low profile, but he finally emerged last week in New York... as an oil bear, and instead of seeing relentless oil price growth coupled with the occasional fling in "peak oil", now predicts the biggest shift yet in the global market: the end of demand growth."There’s a non-zero chance that by 2030, we will see a plateauing[…]

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  • Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike

    Nov 20, 2019 | 21:02 pm

    Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May StrikeAs part of today's FOMC Minutes, the Fed also released the minutes from the October 4 ad hoc unscheduled video conference during which the FOMC agreed to unexpectedly launch POMO, reversing almost two years of QT, in order to address the crisis in the repo market by boosting the Fed's balance sheet permanently and restoring the level of Fed reserves to their "early September level."What it revealed was interesting.First, the minutes disclosed what the FOMC believes prompted the spike in repo rates in mid-September, noting that "the staff reviewed recent developments in money markets and the effect of the Desk’s continued offering of overnight and term repo operations." Then, according to staff analysis and market commentary, it concluded that "many factors contributed to the  funding stresses that  emerged in mid-September. In particular, financial institutions’ internal risk limits and balance sheet costs may have slowed the distribution of liquidity across the system at a time when reserves had dropped sharply and Treasury issuance was elevated."In other words, what happened in September, when the overnight G/C repo rate exploded to 10% is that it was a little bit of everything. It also means that[…]

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  • Only 35% Of Young Republicans Comfortable Sharing Political Opinions With Professors

    Nov 20, 2019 | 20:40 pm

    Only 35% Of Young Republicans Comfortable Sharing Political Opinions With Professors Only 35% Of Young Republicans Comfortable Sharing Political Opinions With ProfessorsAuthored by Jeremiah Poff via The College Fix,A new Institute of Politics at Harvard University poll released Monday found that only about one-third of young Republicans across the nation feel comfortable sharing their political opinions with their professors.The poll found that only 35 percent of Republicans between the ages of 18 and 29 felt comfortable sharing their political opinions with their college professors, highlighting a severe disparity when compared to Democrats and independents, who polled at 54 percent and 51 percent, respectively, on sharing views with educators.On a press call Monday, Harvard sophomore Cathy Sun, who was involved in the creation of the Institute of Politics poll, noted the disparity, saying “the poll results showed that Republicans are far less likely to feel comfortable sharing their political views with their professor.”The Harvard poll’s results are similar to those found by The College Fix, which reported in September that 73 percent of Republican students have withheld political views in class for fear their grades would suffer.Conducted between October 15 and 28, the poll interviewed 2,075 individuals between the ages of 18 and 29, and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.Other results found:16 percent[…]

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  • Johnson Proposes 10 Billion-Pound Tax Cut To Shore Up British Working-Class Support

    Nov 20, 2019 | 20:25 pm

    Johnson Proposes 10 Billion-Pound Tax Cut To Shore Up British Working-Class Support Johnson Proposes 10 Billion-Pound Tax Cut To Shore Up British Working-Class SupportAs the Tories scramble to stitch up what's expected to be a first-place finish in the upcoming UK election, Boris Johnson is taking on Labour where it counts: With payroll tax cuts that will help to roll back the Tory's reputation for austerity.Reuters reports that Johnson has raised the possibility of a multi-billion-pound cut to the payroll tax revenues. The PM reportedly promised to increase the amount of earnings that would be exempt from taxes should he return as PM.  On Wednesday, Johnson said he would bring the National Insurance threshold in line with the income tax levels if he won.Presently, workers pay National Insurance contributions on annual earnings over 8,632 pounds, less than the 12,000-pound threshold at which workers start to owe income tax."We’re going to be cutting National Insurance up to 12,000," Johnson said in response to a question during a campaign event in northeast England about how he would help the average wage earner.If implemented, Johnson's tax cut would give workers earning more than the threshold an extra ÂŁ404 pounds a year.A study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies found earlier this year that every ÂŁ1,000[…]

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  • FOMC Minutes Signal Fed On Hold Despite "Elevated Downside Risks"

    Nov 20, 2019 | 20:05 pm

    FOMC Minutes Signal Fed On Hold Despite "Elevated Downside Risks" FOMC Minutes Signal Fed On Hold Despite "Elevated Downside Risks"Since The Fed cut rates on Oct 30th, Gold is the laggard (there's no more risk) as stocks have soared (trade deal hope) with the dollar and bonds practically unchanged...The 30Y Yield is well below (and the yield curve is notably flatter) pre-FOMC levels...Source: BloombergAnd, rather notably, despite endless FedSpeak jawboning the fact that The Fed is on hold (and data-dependent) now; given today's move on trade-deal headlines, the market is now more dovish than it was right after The Fed cut in October...Source: BloombergAnd of course, while The Fed claims to have got the repo-calypse under control, it remains forced to puke ~$70 billion every day (not cumulative) to plug whatever hole there is...All of which makes today's Minutes rather stale as it will be focused on the "end of the mid-cycle adjustment" just as the "mid-cycle" is set to collapse again as trade-deal hopes evaporate. Still, the minutes may provide some insight into what could prompt the Fed to move again on rates, be it higher or lower.As a reminder, at the last meeting, The Fed cut rates by 25bps, as was anticipated. Hawkish dissent came from George and[…]

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  • Falling in the Polls, Bernie Sanders is Desperate for Love

    Nov 20, 2019 | 17:05 pm

    When an old socialist grouch like Bernie Sanders stoops to “sad-fishing” on the Internet, you know something is wrong.  Wrong with Sanders — and quite possibly, wrong with the cause he stands for, too. You Might Like It happened just a few weeks ago – coincidentally around the same time, Sanders started slipping badly in […]

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  • Leaked Docs: Ukraine Slush Fund Paid Millions To Biden & Kerry

    Nov 19, 2019 | 16:55 pm

    Last week, American entrepreneur and political activist Michael Coudrey broadcast documents from his Twitter account that prove large sums of money flowed through a gas company slush fund in Ukraine to several top Democrats and their families. Devon Archer, an American businessman who sat on the board of Ukrainian-based private oil gas company Burisma Holdings […]

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  • Asia And Africa Top Plastic Polluters

    Nov 18, 2019 | 17:43 pm

    Westerners like me are tired of far-flung policymakers calling the environmental shots based on bad science and a major advertising budget. The United Nations insists that too much petroleum-based pollution is creating an atmospheric carbon crisis. Rather than sanction automakers for suppressing non-petroleum fuel sources (including water or steam), the UN agendas for the past […]

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  • Is that Coke in Your Shrimp?

    Nov 13, 2019 | 17:46 pm

    If you’re looking to get high on cocaine you may not have to look much further than the seafood on your dinner plate. That’s because a number of shrimp tested have been revealed to contain unusually large traces of the drug. The story was first reported last May and has gotten more bizarre ever since. […]

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  • Did Russian Coal Miners Unearth a Real Flying Saucer?

    Nov 13, 2019 | 17:25 pm

    A group of coal miners in Russia appears to have uncovered what in photographs and a mysterious video, appears for all intents and purposes to be a genuine “flying saucer.” You Might Like Russian state media claim the unknown UFO-shaped object was discovered in a coal mine in Belovo District, Kemerovo. Russia Today reported the […]

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  • Navy’s Videos of UFOs Were Never Supposed to Have Been Made Public

    Nov 13, 2019 | 17:19 pm

    “Move, along, there is nothing to see here
” That is what Navy officials would like you to do now, recently admitting that a series of videos showing authentic military footage of UFOs that went viral last year, were really never supposed to be released to the public. But, it’s a little late to put that […]

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  • Former High Ranking CIA Official “Thanks God” for the Deep State

    Nov 13, 2019 | 17:16 pm

    If you have been watching the impeachment inquiry of President Donald J. Trump, then you surely can agree with his assessment that those who are trying to tear him down are a bunch of “career diplomats” and “never-Trumper” eliminates of the “Deep State.” Now, a former high-ranking official has come forward saying not only does […]

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  • Judge Warrants Cop Access To Online Ancestry DNA Records

    Nov 13, 2019 | 17:13 pm

    “This is exactly what we expected would happen…” my editor wrote ominously. And he was right. In another alarming legal ruling against personal privacy at the deepest level – genetic identifiers – a Florida judge recently granted a warrant to a detective keen on conducting a mass search on about a million people, innocent or […]

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  • Ex-Twitter Employees Busted For Saudi Espionage

    Nov 12, 2019 | 17:54 pm

    In breaking news, the United States has filed a criminal complaint against two former Twitter employees, charging that they spied for Saudi Arabia by using their positions to mine information about anyone critical of the Saudi government and fed that valuable data back to their homeland. The federal complaint filed November 5, 2019, was unsealed in […]

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  • Trump’s Huge Advantage with Veterans in 2020

    Nov 11, 2019 | 18:04 pm

    Donald Trump is about to become the first US president to march in the New York City Veteran’s Day Parade.  Grandstanding, you say?   Hardly. At one level, Trump is merely repaying the favor of the enormous support he received from veterans and active-duty soldiers when he captured the White House three years ago. Veterans voted […]

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